Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Forecasts for heavy rainfall through at least mid-August increase the risk of flooding in many areas of northern South Sudan.  

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

According to IOM’s most recent Displacement Tracking Matrix, there are nearly 3.5 million IDPs, refugees, and returnees in the northeast.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Nearly 50,000 households have been displaced by conflict in Al Hodeidah since June.  

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

In Afar Region, below-average vegetation conditions persist, particularly after a delayed start of the Karan/Karma (July to September) rains.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Although the April to June 2018 Gu rainy season has led to improvements, most regions are still recovering from prolonged drought and the associated impact of large-scale livestock losses and poor production.

Current Observations

According to UNHCR, the total number of IDPs increased 24 percent to 2.6 million people between April and June 2018, due to recurrent conflict and seasonal flooding.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Current Observations

Concerns increase for an uptick in violence as the final date for candidate registration for the December 2018 presidential election grows nearer.

Reason for Concern

Conflict has expanded in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Drought in the north and northwest will reduce yields for 2018 main season wheat and other crops. Rangeland conditions are also very poor in some of these areas.

Current Observations

More than 65,000 people have been displaced to Herat City in Herat Province and about 7,000 are displaced to Qala-e-Naw City in Badghis Province due to the ongoing drought.

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

Forecasts indicated that there is an increased likelihood for El Niño-induced below-average rainfall during the 2018-19 rainfall season.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Forecasts for heavy rainfall through at least mid-August increase the risk of flooding in many areas of northern South Sudan.  

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

According to IOM’s most recent Displacement Tracking Matrix, there are nearly 3.5 million IDPs, refugees, and returnees in the northeast.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Nearly 50,000 households have been displaced by conflict in Al Hodeidah since June.  

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

In Afar Region, below-average vegetation conditions persist, particularly after a delayed start of the Karan/Karma (July to September) rains.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Somalia

Although the April to June 2018 Gu rainy season has led to improvements, most regions are still recovering from prolonged drought and the associated impact of large-scale livestock losses and poor production.

According to UNHCR, the total number of IDPs increased 24 percent to 2.6 million people between April and June 2018, due to recurrent conflict and seasonal flooding.

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Concerns increase for an uptick in violence as the final date for candidate registration for the December 2018 presidential election grows nearer.

Afghanistan

Conflict has expanded in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Drought in the north and northwest will reduce yields for 2018 main season wheat and other crops. Rangeland conditions are also very poor in some of these areas.

More than 65,000 people have been displaced to Herat City in Herat Province and about 7,000 are displaced to Qala-e-Naw City in Badghis Province due to the ongoing drought.

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Forecasts indicated that there is an increased likelihood for El Niño-induced below-average rainfall during the 2018-19 rainfall season.

.

Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

USAID logoUSGS logoUSDA logo
NASA logoNOAA logoKimetrica logoChemonics logo